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FOT Community => General Discussion => Topic started by: <<<<< on January 14, 2009, 03:00:34 PM

Title: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: <<<<< on January 14, 2009, 03:00:34 PM
So Kate Winslet won both Golden Globes for Actress and Supporting Actress?  That's insane.  Seems like this girl gets nominated for awards every time she appears on film at all, like this generation's Meryl Streep.  I never see her work though, because she stars in a lot of kind of stuffy (looking) shit.  I liked Heavenly Creatures though.

Does this year look favorable to her?  She's been nominated and subsequently snubbed by the Academy like five times already.

For best actor ~ looks like Mickey Rourke is leading the pack here now?  Or can Sean Penn steal this away?

Other thoughts?
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: JamesU on January 14, 2009, 03:17:11 PM
I'm curious to know peoples opinions of Dark Knight as an Oscar contender. Maybe its just me being a curmudgeon but after hearing all of these 16 year olds on facebook petitioning for it to win everything I had to take the other side. Great Film or great movie? I dunno.
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: Chris L on January 14, 2009, 03:32:21 PM
I was hoping Tom would mention the Golden Globes last night, but I guess they were understandably overshadowed by the AVNs.  I saw Winslet's second speech and it was revolting.  I'm pretty sure poor Sam Mendes had horns on his head* after all her Leo gushing. 

A bit of trivia:  If Rourke and Heath Ledger both win it will be the first year that two acting awards have been given out posthumously**



*from being cuckolded.  Look it up (if necessary).
** Several crew members who drowned making The Abyss won technical awards in 1990. 
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: snogrog on January 14, 2009, 03:47:20 PM
Predictions in the categories I feel like Predicting in:

Best Picture - Slumdog Millionaire, Milk, or The Wrestler (but I do think that The Dark Knight will get a nomination)
Best Supporting Actor - Heath Ledger
Best documentary - Man on Wire
Best Score - The Dark Knight (only speculating as they originally didn't allow it and now have. I have no idea about other score though)
Best Animated - Wall-E

And I can't really guess about actresses as I have not seen enough of the "awards" movies to really have any idea who could get nominated!
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: samir on January 14, 2009, 03:50:41 PM
Here (http://areyougenehackman.blogspot.com/2009/01/and-oscar-goes-to.html) are some of my opinions, written prior to watching the wrestler, which blew me away. At least I'm not as contrary as this loon (http://www.nypress.com/article-19237-better-than-list-2008.html), who uses the word "abortionhorny".
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: masterofsparks on January 14, 2009, 04:18:26 PM
Best actor nominations will be:

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Brad Pitt, Benjamin Buttons
Clint Eastwood, Get Off My Lawn
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk

Outside chance: Benicio Del Toro, Che

I have a bad feeling Eastwood will win a legacy Oscar since he's never won for acting and he's said this will be his last role. If it doesn't go to him, it will be a toss-up between Penn and Rourke with the slight advantage to Rourke since Penn just won it a few years back.

Ledger's a lock for best supporting actor.

Although she didn't win the Golden Globe, I think Angelina Jolie's the frontrunner for best actress.

I have no idea on best supporting actress.

My buddy think Dark Knight will score a best picture nomination. I think he's crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if Wall-E gets a best picture nomination, but it won't win. I think best picture will probably go to Benjamin Buttons, which means Fincher will likely win best director.
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: snogrog on January 14, 2009, 04:26:30 PM

My buddy think Dark Knight will score a best picture nomination. I think he's crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if Wall-E gets a best picture nomination, but it won't win.

I think TDK has a very good chance to get a nomination. The numbers to support this are here: http://tinyurl.com/tdkoscar (http://tinyurl.com/tdkoscar)

and can't an animated film NOT get a best picture nomination by default now that there is the Best Animated Feature category?

Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: Bryan on January 14, 2009, 04:52:53 PM
At least I'm not as contrary as this loon (http://www.nypress.com/article-19237-better-than-list-2008.html), who uses the word "abortionhorny".

Oh boy, that guy. Armond White's knee-jerk contrarianism is not as clever as he thinks it is.
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: <<<<< on January 14, 2009, 05:00:47 PM
Although she didn't win the Golden Globe, I think Angelina Jolie's the frontrunner for best actress.

Really?  I haven't seen The Changeling, but she's never impressed me in... any role.  Girl, Interrrupted was an obnoxious movie.

Wall-E absolutely can be nominated for Best Picture.  It might get it excluded from the animated film category but it would still be a good tradeoff.
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: <<<<< on January 14, 2009, 05:05:58 PM
Re: The Wrestler ~ I think Mickey Rourke is this film's best bet here.  I don't think the Academy has the cajones to give a statuette to Darren Aronofsky directly just yet.  Not when there are still plenty of swoopy period epics around to gush about.

(But then, I didn't think it had the balls to award No Country for Old Men either so what do I know.) 
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: Come on, Jason on January 14, 2009, 05:19:22 PM
Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director: Danny Boyle
Actor: Sean Penn
Actress: Meryl Streep (though I'm rooting for Anne Hathaway)
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis
Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black - Milk
Adapted Screenplay: John Patrick Shanley - Doubt



Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: Martin on January 14, 2009, 05:25:15 PM
Can we please stop reading/link/listen to Armond White? It's time, people.

ACTOR: MICKEY ROURKE, THE WEXLER (Haskell Wexler biopic)
ACTRESS: SALLY HAWKINS
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: K-WINS (The Reader)
SUPPORTING ACTOR: will be HEATH LEDGER, should be EDDIE MARSAN
PIC: SLUMDOG-A-MILLI
DIRECTOR: D-BOY, SLUM-D HUNDREDAIRE
SCORE: AR RAHMAN, S-DOG BILLIONAIRE
FOREIGN: WALTZ W/ BASHER (cockney thug learns to dance)

That's all I got
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: masterofsparks on January 14, 2009, 05:53:56 PM
Although she didn't win the Golden Globe, I think Angelina Jolie's the frontrunner for best actress.

Really?  I haven't seen The Changeling, but she's never impressed me in... any role.  Girl, Interrrupted was an obnoxious movie.

Just to clarify, I haven't seen Changeling either and I'm not especially fond of her.
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: <<<<< on January 14, 2009, 06:13:25 PM
Fair enough.  I've just always felt a little befuddled over why everyone seems so enamoured with her.  She seems fairly middle of the road to me, both as a beauty and as a talent. 

But who knows, maybe this is a breakout role for her.

Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: Matt on January 14, 2009, 08:45:20 PM
I'm curious to know peoples opinions of Dark Knight as an Oscar contender. Maybe its just me being a curmudgeon but after hearing all of these 16 year olds on facebook petitioning for it to win everything I had to take the other side. Great Film or great movie? I dunno.

I would be hugely surprised if The Dark Knight was nominated for Best Picture. I kinda want it to happen, both because it was one of the best movies I saw last year, and because I think the fallout from the nomination would be fun to watch. People from both sides of the argument would be losing their shit. Anyways, I think it's certainly more deserving of a nomination than that snooze Benjamin Button.

I do think Christopher Nolan will be nominated for Best Director, however, and there is a slim possibility for a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination. Ledger will be nominated, but I don't think he'll win. It'll get a ton of technical nominations; I think it has a good shot at Cinematography and Original Score.

As for Best Picture, I think the nominees will be something like this:

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
MILK
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
FROST/NIXON
DOUBT

Maybe Revolutionary Road or Gran Torino will make the cut over Doubt, but the first four are pretty much locks. I think Milk will win; if ever a movie came out at (almost) the right time, it was that one. Plus, I think the Academy needs to save face for not giving the award to Brokebank Mountain a few years ago.

I also predict that, in the future, we won't have all these crazy hangups about sex, man. And there will be three-sided tape. I'll see you there!
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: Emily on January 14, 2009, 11:18:35 PM

As for Best Picture, I think the nominees will be something like this:

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
MILK
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
FROST/NIXON
DOUBT


I can usually call the winner when I see the clips, but I agree with you that Milk will probably win. I would just swap Ben Button with Rev Road.

For documentary I think Man on Wire will win.

Best actor - Mickey Rourke
Supporting actor - Heath Ledger

not sure about the actresses.. have to see the clips.
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: Fido on January 14, 2009, 11:35:03 PM
Synecdoche, New York isn't going to win a damn thing, is it? Just checking.
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: thepolak on January 14, 2009, 11:44:41 PM
Though I believe Milk should win, I bet Slumdog Millionaire will win.  Alas.  As for best actor, how do we value these things? 
Sean Penn was just being someone else who actually existed (and really being him) while Mickey Rourke was a fictional character.  And besides that wasn't Ryan from The OC in The Wrestler?  Immediate disqualification for its involvement in Fox teen drama. 
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: jbissell on January 15, 2009, 01:14:44 AM
ACTRESS: SALLY HAWKINS
SUPPORTING ACTOR: will be HEATH LEDGER, should be EDDIE MARSAN

I could see Hawkins winning, she's got to be the dark horse right now, she was certainly really great.  My preference would be Michelle Williams for Wendy and Lucy but I doubt she'll get nominated.
You're right about Marsan, he was great, which was a total surprise to me since his role in Hancock was so awful.

I'm hoping Slumdog doesn't win but at this point I'd be pretty surprised if it didn't. 
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: Sarah on January 15, 2009, 09:26:41 AM
Although she didn't win the Golden Globe, I think Angelina Jolie's the frontrunner for best actress.

Really?  I haven't seen The Changeling, but she's never impressed me in... any role.  Girl, Interrrupted was an obnoxious movie.

Just to clarify, I haven't seen Changeling either and I'm not especially fond of her.

She was certainly awful in the ads for that movie. 
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: snogrog on January 15, 2009, 10:11:46 AM
Best Cameo - Todd Barry in The Wrestler.
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: iAmBaronVonTito on January 15, 2009, 12:49:04 PM
At least I'm not as contrary as this loon (http://www.nypress.com/article-19237-better-than-list-2008.html), who uses the word "abortionhorny".

i had a hard time reading, so i didnt.  what a goon.
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: ericluxury on January 16, 2009, 03:35:51 PM
Angelina Jolie really, really doesn't deserve an oscar for The Changeling. The movie was very well made, but she wasn't very good. It didn't help that they made her look distractingly like Betty Boop, so much that even in the scenes where she was supposedly in a mental institution for a few weeks, she had lots of eye make-up on (does she have eyeliner tattooed on? it appears so).
Even besides, she had an iciness that felt off. (It could be just her intense fame and the way that she markets herself so much as the ultimate mother in a way that doesn't remind me of moms.) All this stuff distracts when its a characters that she is playing.
Malkovich and Amy Ryan were fantastic in the movie though. If either one of them were nominated, it'd be justified (but neither will happen).
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: <<<<< on January 16, 2009, 04:21:29 PM
This is a problem for me sometimes when an actor/actress suffers a serious amount of over-exposure that damages my ability to suspend disbelief re: their roles.  ie.  If I had to sit through Angelina Jolie playing a 19th Century farm wife in Illinois, I'd be like "oh give me a fargin' break," even if her acting was okay.
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: Martin on January 16, 2009, 04:50:16 PM
However: Jolie was pretty damn fantastic in A Mighty Heart, in my opinion.
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: jbissell on January 16, 2009, 06:56:12 PM
However: Jolie was pretty damn fantastic in A Mighty Heart, in my opinion.

Yeah, that's the one time I think the acclaim for her performance was mostly justified.
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: emdasher on January 22, 2009, 06:55:31 PM
Even though technically M.I.A.'s "Paper Planes" can't be nominated for anything, it should still be performed at this year's Oscars alongside a montage of clips from Pineapple Express, Slumdog Millionaire, and Hancock.
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: Beth on January 22, 2009, 08:37:29 PM
I don't think Benjamin Button deserves nominations for anything other than special effects. It was lukewarm and sappy. 
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: Come on, Jason on January 23, 2009, 12:06:33 AM
Way to go, Melissa Leo! 

I've yet to see Frozen River, but I'm assuming she knocked it out of the park and deserves to win - not because she was nominated for a tiny film nobody saw, but because I've seen every episode of Homicide: Life on the Street at least five times, and Sgt. Kay Howard can neither be topped nor stopped.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73vsHe3ly8I[/youtube]
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: hugman on January 23, 2009, 12:44:03 AM
I cheered for Rourke when he won the golden globe, but I hadn't seen Milk, which I just saw, and I think the oscar's gotta go to Sean Penn.   Rourke was awesome, but Penn had a more complex job to do.  On another note, I'm ashamed to say that after 20 years of listening to the dead kennedys version of I Fought The Law, only now do I know what it's about.  errrrrrrrrrr-DUH!
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: theyellowchair on January 23, 2009, 10:08:04 AM
A lot of buzz around these parts about the "Best Hired Muscle" award going to Steve from N.H. ... beating out Shia LaBeouf's guardsman in a highly-contested battle.
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: daveB from Oakland on January 24, 2009, 04:56:34 PM


Adam Sandler + Bedtime Stories = Oscar Sweep.

You heard it here first.

Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: samir on January 24, 2009, 11:33:14 PM
Russell Brand is a lock for Best Hair and Costume. All by himself.
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: Raad_Man on January 25, 2009, 10:00:56 AM
mickey rourke thanked axl rose at the golden globes.  i'm cheering for him to win an oscar so he can mention axl there too.
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: masterofsparks on January 25, 2009, 10:02:46 AM
Axl Rose was thanked in the closing credits of The Wrestler as well. Probably something to do with his letting them use a GNR song in the film.
Title: Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
Post by: Chris L on January 25, 2009, 10:26:24 AM
Axl Rose was thanked in the closing credits of The Wrestler as well. Probably something to do with his letting them use a GNR song in the film.

He also served as the film's bandana consultant (uncredited).