Really Iowa?

[Beth]

Don't forget John Kerry and Unite Here. I really dislike John Kerry, but he's apparently got a lot of supporters, so good for Obama. But poor John Edwards. He's like "Hey man, I was your running mate. You cut me deep, Kerry."

[John Junk]

But if we're playing a numbers game, which is pretty much all an election is, then having 50% of the population identify with your gender rather than 12% with your race is a better starting point.
Also a higher percentage of women vote than men, while black people turn out in low numbers, are more likely to be disqualified from voting or are prevented from voting (I'm looking at you Florida).

More black voters are going to vote for Obama because of his race than women voters will vote for Clinton because of her gender. Plus, I hate to say it but Oprah might have made the difference in percentages a lot more even with her endorsement of Obama. That's a sad thought...

Actually, what is that thought?  I was going to twist your words around to make a joke, but then I realized I didn't understand what you were saying. 

[Gilly]

That Oprah has the ability to shape the votes of thousands of women (and some men I suppose) across America.

[Jason]

But if we're playing a numbers game, which is pretty much all an election is, then having 50% of the population identify with your gender rather than 12% with your race is a better starting point.
Also a higher percentage of women vote than men, while black people turn out in low numbers, are more likely to be disqualified from voting or are prevented from voting (I'm looking at you Florida).

More black voters are going to vote for Obama because of his race than women voters will vote for Clinton because of her gender. Plus, I hate to say it but Oprah might have made the difference in percentages a lot more even with her endorsement of Obama. That's a sad thought...

That's ridiculous. For a start the Democrats have the black vote sewn up anyway so they don't even need the potential liability of a black candidate.
Oprah's influence is mostly self-publicising bluster, she may be able to blackmail the intellectual consciences of day-time tv viewers into parting with $10 for a Toni Morrison book, but I sincerely doubt she has any more influence over the general populaces political allegiances than any other major celebrity and certainly no more than any of the big political pundits or talk radio hosts.

[Andy]

A woman, weak and feeble vessel that she is, is just a woman.

I found my new signature.

[Gilly]

But if we're playing a numbers game, which is pretty much all an election is, then having 50% of the population identify with your gender rather than 12% with your race is a better starting point.
Also a higher percentage of women vote than men, while black people turn out in low numbers, are more likely to be disqualified from voting or are prevented from voting (I'm looking at you Florida).

More black voters are going to vote for Obama because of his race than women voters will vote for Clinton because of her gender. Plus, I hate to say it but Oprah might have made the difference in percentages a lot more even with her endorsement of Obama. That's a sad thought...

That's ridiculous. For a start the Democrats have the black vote sewn up anyway so they don't even need the potential liability of a black candidate.
Oprah's influence is mostly self-publicising bluster, she may be able to blackmail the intellectual consciences of day-time tv viewers into parting with $10 for a Toni Morrison book, but I sincerely doubt she has any more influence over the general populaces political allegiances than any other major celebrity and certainly no more than any of the big political pundits or talk radio hosts.

You don't think Obama will bring more black voters to vote in November? It was one thing when it was a white man promising black voters great things but when it's a black man promising great things I'd have to think there is going to be a huge turnout in November.

I didn't say millions of voters would be swayed by Oprah...thousands. That's probably about on par with Limbaugh or whoever is on Fox News these days. I'm not saying viewers would change their party affiliation. It was a big blow to Hillary when Oprah endorsed Obama. What's sad is that Oprah's endorsement will matter.

[Jason]

You're right, if he was up for the big job you probably would see a surge in black voters but it'd still be only within that 13%. I think the reality is that his color will be a liability in a presidential race.

[TL]

You're right, if he was up for the big job you probably would see a surge in black voters but it'd still be only within that 13%. I think the reality is that his color will be a liability in a presidential race.

I don't think to the degree that you're asserting.  I mean, is ANYONE who'd otherwise vote Democrat NOT going to vote for Obama, if he wins the nomination, because he's not white?  Even John Kerry (who was a crappy candidate, however good a President he might have been) almost beat GWB in the middle of a war, and one of the things that the Iowa caucuses were interestingly indicative of is the fact that a lot of "Independents" and even a few Republicans felt that Barack was worth their time. 
I do agree with Sarah's assessment of how this breaks down along sexual/racial lines.  That said, another question that arises is, is anyone who'd otherwise vote Democrat NOT going to vote for Hillary, if she wins the nomination, because she's a woman?  I actually find it easier to believe that, than that they'd not vote for a black man (both suggestions are disgustingly and alternately sad and infuriating).

[dave from knoxville]

Once either one of them is definitely established as the nominee, the well-financed slamming will begin. And unfortunately, the people believe whatever the TV tells them. I am genuinely fearful that a Republican will win again, and will see it as a mandate that Bush's war is what the people want.

But I don't mean to get political on ya or nothing.

[Sarah]

I'm with you, Dave.  And much as I agree that a candidate's sex and race shouldn't matter a damn, I am furious at the Democratic Party for not fielding a strong but less controversial alternative to Clinton and Obama.  Unfortunately, unlike you, TL, I think there are plenty of fools who are registered Democrats who will not be able to rise above their prejudices if faced with a candidate of what they perceive to be the wrong sex or color.

But then I still think GWB is going to find an excuse in the coming months to name himself king of the US of A.

[dave from knoxville]

I am on the same potential-conspiracy-to-thwart-the-election train as you, Sarah. Sincerely. Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you, and all that. Does anyone look at the Pakistani delayed-election and NOT think that Bush hasn't thought how great that would be? Really?

That's a tortured sentence, but hopefully it parses.

[Sarah]

I think it's because we're old and cynical, Dave.  Old and cynical trumps young and cynical any day. 

[TL]

Where does "early middle-aged and cynical" fall on that spectrum?

[Martin]

I took a test:

90% Mike Gravel (D)
90% Dennis Kucinich (D)
81% Barack Obama (D)
80% John Edwards (D)
79% Joe Biden (D)
79% Hillary Clinton (D)
78% Chris Dodd (D)
71% Bill Richardson (D)
38% Rudy Giuliani (R)
27% Ron Paul (R)
22% John McCain (R)
20% Mitt Romney (R)
19% Tom Tancredo (R)
15% Mike Huckabee (R)
8% Fred Thompson (R)

2008 Presidential Candidate Matching Quiz

That's quite a drop between the dems and the reps.

[Sarah]

95% Mike Gravel
93% Dennis Kucinich
83% John Edwards
79% Barack Obama
77% Joe Biden
77% Chris Dodd
74% Hillary Clinton
67% Bill Richardson
36% Rudy Giuliani
26% Ron Paul
25% John McCain
21% Mitt Romney
18% Mike Huckabee
17% Tom Tancredo
  9% Fred Thompson