2009 MLB Thread

[dave from knoxville]

What's meant by "ensure"? Nothing's certain.

Related topic:  According to Leonard Mlodinow the World Series would have to a be least 269 games to ensure that the best team was crowned world champion.  In a seven games series the less talented team has a 20% chance of taking the four games necessary to capture the title.

[nec13]

This is their strength, a sledload of mid-level starters and solid middle relievers that will keep games close and give Pujols or Ludwick a chance to win it with one hit at the end.

Besides Pujols and Ludwick, the Cardinals biggest asset is Dave Duncan. He's taken the likes of Joel Piniero, Kyle Lohse, and Todd Wellemeyer and turned them into solid starting pitchers. If you look at their statistics, besides Wainwright, that staff doesn't get a ton of strikeouts. But they do tend to go at least 6 IP, and for the most part, give the team a quality start. Piniero, for example, only has 14 K's this year. But he's efficient, because he induces so many groundball outs.

[hugman]

As part of daily ritual, one thing I do is rank NL players everyday. (It supports my fantasy baseball habit; hip or not, my league is in season 26, we ain't stopping now).

Here's how the Cardinal's offense rates out as of today (determined by stats to date.)

2) Albert Pujols
24) Ryan Ludwick
64) Yadier Molina
68) Chris Duncan
88) Skip Schumaker
105) Brian Barden
106) Colby Rasmus
117) Rick Ankiel
122) Kahlil Greene
146) Brendan Ryan
172) David Freese


Nobody else is playing enough to register in this evaluation system. This is not really the profile of a highly efficient team.

Here's the pitchers, just for fun

12) Ryan Franklin
35) Chris Carpenter
44) Kyle McLellan
49) Kyle Lohse
52) Adam Wainwright
53) Joel Piniero
55) Chris Perez
63) Jason Motte
65) Dennys Reyes
77) Mitchell Boggs
109) Todd Wellemyer

This is their strength, a sledload of mid-level starters and solid middle relievers that will keep games close and give Pujols or Ludwick a chance to win it with one hit at the end.

touche

Davey, would you mind posting the stats for a strong team for comparison. I'd like to see how many players on a team don't seem mediocre when ranked like this.  I'd love to see the Yankees just for giggles, but also a "strong" team that doesn't have an unlimited budget.

[Gilly]

Are your rankings based on purely this year Dave or do you take the past into account? Who would you have above Pujols? Ibanez? Maybe Hanley Ramirez? Santana?

[nec13]

Raul Ibanez is ridiculous. He has a .735 slugging percentage and a .432 OBP. His OPS+ is 192. What's even more amazing is that he isn't just padding his stats at Citizens Bank Park. He has a 1.041 OPS on the road. Best signing of the offseason, thus far. And it's not even close.

[jbissell]

Raul Ibanez is ridiculous. He has a .735 slugging percentage and a .432 OBP. His OPS+ is 192. What's even more amazing is that he isn't just padding his stats at Citizens Bank Park. He has a 1.041 OPS on the road. Best signing of the offseason, thus far. And it's not even close.

And I managed to get him on almost all of my fantasy teams.

[dave from knoxville]

Are your rankings based on purely this year Dave or do you take the past into account? Who would you have above Pujols? Ibanez? Maybe Hanley Ramirez? Santana?

This is strictly based on this season. The only offensive player ahead of Pujols is indeed Raul Ibanez. Let me see if I can find a solid current team. But it's got to be NL; we are talking about baseball here, not stunt-of-the-week. The DH is like deuces and one-eyed jacks wild, and if you get the seven of spades, you have to down a shot.

[dave from knoxville]

Much as it pains me to say it, the best team going's probably the Dodgers. Here's how they stack up as of today, May 17, 2009, based purely on this year's stats. And it's all in the pitchers, who are, so far at least, phenomenal.

Hitters

16) Orlando Hudosn
17) Matt Kemp
31) Andre Ethier
32) Manny Ramirez
39) Casey Blake
43) Juan Pierre
58) James Loney
72) Russell Martin
131) Rafael Furcal
176) Blake DeWitt

Pitchers

5) Jonathan Broxton
6) Chad Billingsley
16) Randy Wolf
20) Ramon Troncoso
36) Jorge de la Rosa
45) Eric Stults
54) Hiroki Kuroda
85) Clayton Kershaw


That's pretty freaking strong; 7 of the top 54 pitchers? The "typical" team has 3.

[Gilly]

If I had Ibanez on my fantasy team I'd be trying as hard as I could to make some owner overpay. He's good, but he's not this good. He's so far off his career norm it's ridiculous. I would bet he comes close to his '06 numbers which are great, but not that great considering where he already is.

[nec13]

If I had Ibanez on my fantasy team I'd be trying as hard as I could to make some owner overpay. He's good, but he's not this good. He's so far off his career norm it's ridiculous. I would bet he comes close to his '06 numbers which are great, but not that great considering where he already is.

I agree with you. He isn't going to be carrying a 1.200 OPS all season. But his numbers this season will probably above his career norms simply because he gets to hit for 81 games in that bandbox. I think he'll probably finish with 35 HR and 120 RBI, which is what he hit for in '06.

[hugman]

Much as it pains me to say it, the best team going's probably the Dodgers. Here's how they stack up as of today, May 17, 2009, based purely on this year's stats. And it's all in the pitchers, who are, so far at least, phenomenal.

Hitters

16) Orlando Hudosn
17) Matt Kemp
31) Andre Ethier
32) Manny Ramirez
39) Casey Blake
43) Juan Pierre
58) James Loney
72) Russell Martin
131) Rafael Furcal
176) Blake DeWitt

Pitchers

5) Jonathan Broxton
6) Chad Billingsley
16) Randy Wolf
20) Ramon Troncoso
36) Jorge de la Rosa
45) Eric Stults
54) Hiroki Kuroda
85) Clayton Kershaw


That's pretty freaking strong; 7 of the top 54 pitchers? The "typical" team has 3.

goldang.  who's your team anyway, Dave?   The Reds or Braves? 

[dave from knoxville]

I almost hesitate to admit it, but it's the Braves. They were the only team I ever saw live as a kid (well, they were usually playing another team.) I figure if I stuck with them through all those 105 loss seasons in the 70's, I might as well stick now. For better or worse. But in Nashville, I also got lots of newspaper coverage of the Reds and Cardinals, so I have a soft spot for them as well.

[nec13]

I would imagine that fan allegiances in Tennessee would break down like this:

East: Braves (and Reds to a lesser extent)
West: Cardinals (the Cards AAA farm team has been in Memphis for years)

Of course, there are probably smatterings of Cubs, Yankees, and Red Sox fans in Tennessee as well.

[chrisfoll577]

I would imagine that fan allegiances in Tennessee would break down like this:

East: Braves (and Reds to a lesser extent)
West: Cardinals (the Cards AAA farm team has been in Memphis for years)

Of course, there are probably smatterings of Cubs, Yankees, and Red Sox fans in Tennessee as well.

According to the CommonCensus Sports Map, you're right on the money.

[nec13]

That's a pretty cool link. Although I don't think it's all that accurate, I've always liked this map.