2009 MLB Thread

[nec13]

As jbissell pointed out, Halladay's contract runs out after next season. And he probably won't be re-signing in Toronto. So they might as well get something for him while they can. Moreover, they have some good young pitchers like Ricky Romero and Brett Cecil that can replace Halladay.

[scratchbomb]

I get it and I don't get it, I guess. As for resigning him, I don't think it's totally out of the question--but they'd have to unload the hideous Wells contract first (at least).

[nec13]

I'm sure that they would like to re-sign him. But Halladay has to reciprocate. He actually has to want to re-sign in Toronto. I don't think he does. Realistically, Toronto will probably finish no higher than fourth in the AL East for next 5 to 7 years. With Wieters, Jones, Markakis, Tillman, Matusz, et al., Baltimore will probably pass up Toronto pretty soon, leaving the Jays in the AL East cellar. He probably wants to pitch for a team that has a legitimate shot at winning their division. The Blue Jays can't offer that, unfortunately.

[scratchbomb]

I certainly hope JP Ricciardi appreciates this back-and-forth we're having on his behalf. It will save him some valuable decision making time.

[dave from knoxville]

Here's more spam

At the allstar break, here's the listing of most valuable NL players, ranked by their approximate number of points of value they would add to the typical team in my league. I don't care about AL players; I am only talking about baseball here.

Haren, Dan SP ARI  17.75
Pujols, Albert 1B STL 15.5
Lincecum, Tim SP SF  12.75
Franklin, Ryan RP STL 11
Carpenter, Chris SP STL  10.75
Broxton, Jonathan RP LA 10.5
Ramirez, Hanley SS FLA 10.25
Bell, Heath RP SD 10.25
Reynolds, Mark 3B ARI 10
Johnson, Josh SP FLA  10
Street, Huston RP COL 10
Fielder, Prince 1B MIL 9.75
Vazquez, Javier SP ATL  9.75
Utley, Chase 2B PHI 9.75
Lilly, Ted SP CHC  9.25
Rodriguez, Francisco J. RP NYM 9
Kemp, Matt CF LA 9
Cain, Matt SP SF  8.75
Ibanez, Raul LF PHI 8.75
Cordero, Francisco RP CIN8.5
Soriano, Rafael RP ATL 8.5
Pineiro, Joel SP STL 8.5
Werth, Jayson RF PHI 8.25
Upton, Justin RF ARI 8.25
Braun, Ryan J. LF MIL 8
Santana, Johan SP NYM  8
Wilson, Brian RP SF 7.75
Hoffman, Trevor RP MIL 7.75
Sandoval, Pablo 1B SF 7.75
Howard, Ryan 1B PHI 7.5
Wright, David 3B NYM7.5
Duke, Zach SP PIT  7.25
Phillips, Brandon 2B CIN 7.25
Billingsley, Chad SP LA  7
Dunn, Adam LF WAS 7
Wainwright, Adam SP STL  7
Gallardo, Yovani SP MIL  6.75
Berkman, Lance 1B HOU 6.75
Gregg, Kevin RP CHC 6.75
Bourn, Michael CF HOU 6.5
Hawpe, Brad RF COL 6.25
Happ, J.A. SP PHI  6.25
Rodriguez, Wandy SP HOU  6.25
Jurrjens, Jair SP ATL  6.25
Gonzalez, Adrian 1B SD 6.25
McLouth, Nate CF ATL 6.25
Victorino, Shane CF PHI6
Qualls, Chad RP ARI 6
Wells, Randy RP CHC  6
Wolf, Randy SP LA  6
Beltran, Carlos CF NYM 6
Marquis, Jason SP COL  5.75
Cueto, Johnny SP CIN  5.75
Lee, Derrek 1B CHC 5.75
Lee, Carlos N. LF HOU 5.5
Ethier, Andre RF LA 5.5
Troncoso, Ramon RP LA 5.5
Kershaw, Clayton SP LA  5.5
Tulowitzki, Troy SS COL 5.25
Hawkins, LaTroy RP HOU5.25
Helton, Todd 1B COL 5.25
Meyer, Dan L. SP FLA5.25
Pence, Hunter RF HOU5.25
Ludwick, Ryan RF STL 5.25
Ross, Cody CF FLA 5.25
Pierre, Juan LF LA5
Tejada, Miguel SS HOU5
Votto, Joey 1B CIN 5
DiFelice, Mark RP MIL5
Zimmerman, Ryan 3B WAS 5
Blake, Casey 3B LA4.75
Gonzalez, Mike RP ATL 4.75
Morgan, Nyjer LF WAS 4.75
Oswalt, Roy SP HOU  4.75
Peavy, Jake SP SD 4.5
Hairston, Scott CF OAK4.5
Barmes, Clint 2B COL 4.5
Loney, James 1B LA 4.25
Madson, Ryan RP PHI4.25
Cantu, Jorge 3B FLA 4.25
Stewart, Ian 3B COL 4
Theriot, Ryan SS CHC 4
Coffey, Todd RP MIL4
Sampson, Chris SP HOU 4
Volstad, Chris SP FLA  4
Cameron, Mike CF MIL 4
Hudson, Orlando 2B LA 4
Zambrano, Carlos SP CHC  3.75
DeRosa, Mark 2B STL 3.75
Sanchez, Freddy 2B PIT 3.75
Valverde, Jose RP HOU 3.5
Rowand, Aaron CF SF3.5
Jimenez, Ubaldo SP COL  3.5
Capps, Matt RP PIT 3.25
Belisario, Ronald RP LA 3.25
Uggla, Dan 2B FLA 3.25
Escobar, Yunel SS ATL 3.25
McClellan, Kyle RP STL3.25
Willingham, Josh LF WAS 3.25
Molina, Bengie C SF 3
Nunez, Leo RP FLA 3
Hanson, Tommy SP ATL 3
McCann, Brian C ATL 3
Jones, Chipper 3B ATL 3
Fowler, Dexter CF COL3
Bruce, Jay RF CIN 3
Scherzer, Max SP ARI3
Soriano, Alfonso LF CHC2.75
Ohlendorf, Ross SP PIT 2.75
Cook, Aaron SP COL  2.75
Rollins, Jimmy SS PHI 2.75
Lopez, Felipe 2B ARI 2.75
Sadowski, Ryan SP SF 2.75
Sheffield, Gary DH NYM 2.75
Johnson, Nick 1B WAS 2.75
Correia, Kevin SP SD  2.75
Kuroda, Hiroki SP LA  2.75
Rasmus, Colby CF STL2.75
Johnson, Randy SP SF 2.5
Kouzmanoff, Kevin 3B SD 2.5
Lannan, John SP WAS  2.5
Feliz, Pedro 3B PHI 2.5
Condrey, Clay RP PHI 2.5
LaRoche, Adam A. 1B PIT2.5
Ramirez, Manny LF LA 2.5
Hermida, Jeremy RF FLA 2.5
Marshall, Sean SP CHC 2.25
Spilborghs, Ryan RF COL2.25
Hart, Corey C. RF MIL 2.25
Lohse, Kyle SP STL  2.25
Weathers, David RP CIN2.25
Kawakami, Kenshin SP ATL 2
Dempster, Ryan SP CHC 2
Bonifacio, Emilio 2B FLA 2
Volquez, Edinson SP CIN 2
Lowe, Derek SP ATL  2
Winn, Randy RF SF 1.75
Molina, Yadier C STL1.75
Blanton, Joe SP PHI  1.75
Davis, Doug SP ARI 1.75
Maine, John SP NYM 1.5
Headley, Chase LF SD1.5
Howry, Bob RP SF1.5
Smith, Seth RF COL 1.5
Lindstrom, Matt RP FLA 1.5
Lidge, Brad RP PHI 1.5
Francoeur, Jeff RF NYM 1.5
McGehee, Casey 3B MIL1.5
Weeks, Rickie 2B MIL 1.5
Nieve, Fernando RP NYM  1.25
Hairston, Jerry LF CIN1.25
Myers, Brett SP PHI 1.25
Motte, Jason RP STL1.25
Weaver, Jeff SP LA 1.25
Fukudome, Kosuke RF CHC1.25
Pena, Tony A. RP CHW1.25
Drew, Stephen SS ARI 1.25
Ishikawa, Travis 1B SF1.25
Rauch, Jon RP ARI1
Looper, Braden SP MIL  1
Grabow, John RP PIT1
Marmol, Carlos RP CHC1
Hardy, J.J. SS MIL 1
Iannetta, Chris C COL 1
Castillo, Luis 2B NYM 1
Renteria, Edgar SS SF1
Guzman, Cristian SS WAS1
McCutchen, Andrew OF PIT 1
Diaz, Matt LF ATL1
Zimmermann, Jordan SP WAS  1
Reyes, Jose B. SS NYM 1
Reyes, Dennys RP STL1
Schumaker, Skip CF STL 1
LaRoche, Andy 3B PIT0.75
Harang, Aaron SP CIN  0.75
Anderson, Garret LF ATL 0.75
Taveras, Willy CF CIN 0.75
Hamels, Cole SP PHI  0.75
Martin, Russell C LA 0.75
Parra, Gerardo OF ARI 0.75
Wilson, Jack SS PIT0.75
Harris, Willie LF WAS0.5
Matsui, Kazuo 2B HOU 0.5
Prado, Martin 3B ATL 0.5
Pelfrey, Mike SP NYM  0.5
Hernandez, Ramon C CIN0.5
Church, Ryan RF ATL 0.5
Dukes, Elijah RF WAS0.5
Hammel, Jason SP COL  0.5
Perez, Chris RP CLE0.5
Young, Chris B. CF ARI 0.25
Kotchman, Casey 1B ATL 0.25
Baker, John C FLA0.25
Romero, J.C. RP PHI0.25
Hoffpauir, Micah OF CHC 0.25
Uribe, Juan 2B SF 0.25
Ryan, Brendan SS STL0.25
Rodriguez, Ivan C HOU0.25
Byrnes, Eric LF ARI 0.25
Nix, Laynce CF CIN 0.25
Soto, Geovany C CHC 0.25
Corpas, Manny RP COL 0
Villanueva, Carlos SP MIL0
Furcal, Rafael SS LA 0
Stults, Eric SP LA0
Gomes, Jonny LF CIN0
Dickerson, Chris LF CIN 0
West, Sean SP FLA 0
Eckstein, David SS SD 0
Delgado, Carlos 1B NYM 0
Zito, Barry SP SF  0
Maholm, Paul SP PIT  0
Samardzija, Jeff RP CHC0
Thompson, Brad SP STL 0
Bastardo, Antonio SP PHI 0
Murphy, Daniel LF NYM-0.25
Miller, Andrew SP FLA  -0.25
Ramirez, Aramis 3B CHC-0.25
Martis, Shairon SP WAS-0.25
Fontenot, Mike 2B CHC-0.25
Nolasco, Ricky SP FLA  -0.25
Putz, J.J. RP NYM -0.25
Montero, Miguel C ARI -0.25
Blum, Geoff 3B HOU -0.25
Webb, Brandon SP ARI -0.25
Schierholtz, Nate RF SF-0.25
Santos, Omir C NYM -0.25
Bush, Dave SP MIL -0.25
Ross, David C ATL-0.5
Tatis, Fernando LF NYM -0.5
Young, Chris R. SP SD -0.5
Dobbs, Greg 3B PHI-0.5
MacDougal, Mike RP WAS -0.5
Hernandez, Anderson 2B WAS -0.5
Duncan, Chris 1B STL-0.5
Jones, Garrett 1B PIT -0.5
Flores, Jesus C WAS -0.5
Fox, Jake 1B CHC -0.5
Atkins, Garrett 3B COL-0.5
Burriss, Emmanuel SS SF-0.5
Lewis, Fred LF SF-0.75
Bradley, Milton OF CHC -0.75
Tracy, Chad A. 1B ARI-0.75
Arroyo, Bronson SP CIN  -0.75
Gonzalez, Alberto SS WAS -0.75
Medlen, Kris P ATL -0.75
Sanchez, Jonathan O. SP SF -0.75
Garland, Jon SP ARI  -0.75
Geer, Josh SP SD  -1
Johnson, Reed CF CHC-1
Gamel, Mat 3B MIL -1
Snyder, Chris C ARI -1
Moss, Brandon LF PIT -1
Johnson, Kelly 2B ATL -1
Ruiz, Carlos C PHI -1
Greene, Khalil SS STL -1
Cabrera, Everth SS SD-1
Gwynn, Tony K. CF SD-1
Hanigan, Ryan C CIN-1
Burton, Jared RP CIN-1
Ortiz, Russ SP HOU  -1.25
Keppinger, Jeff SS HOU-1.25
Park, Chan Ho SP PHI-1.25
Diaz, Robinzon C PIT -1.25
Coghlan, Chris 3B FLA-1.25
Schneider, Brian C NYM -1.25
Paulino, Ronny C FLA-1.25
Harden, Rich SP CHC  -1.25
Ankiel, Rick CF STL-1.25
Pagan, Angel LF NYM -1.5
Moyer, Jamie SP PHI  -1.5
Carroll, Brett CF FLA -1.75
Hall, Bill 3B MIL -1.75
Barden, Brian 3B STL -1.75
Jackson, Conor 1B ARI -1.75
Owings, Micah SP CIN -1.75
Hundley, Nick C SD -1.75
Sanchez, Anibal SP FLA -2
Mayberry, John OF PHI-2
Blanco, Henry C SD -2
Roberts, Ryan 3B ARI-2
Gonzalez, Carlos OF COL-2
Aurilia, Rich 1B SF-2
Geary, Geoff RP HOU-2
Doumit, Ryan C PIT -2.25
Gonzalez, Alex SS CIN -2.25
Kendall, Jason C MIL-2.25
Kearns, Austin RF WAS-2.25
Suppan, Jeff SP MIL  -2.25
Coste, Chris C HOU -2.25
Torrealba, Yorvit C COL -2.25
Hill, Koyie C CHC-2.5
Giles, Brian RF SD -2.75
Encarnacion, Edwin 3B CIN -2.75
Martinez, Fernando OF NYM -2.75
Schafer, Jordan OF ATL -2.75
Baker, Jeff 2B CHC -3
Michaels, Jason LF HOU-3
DeWitt, Blake 2B LA-3
Hanrahan, Joel RP PIT-3
Maybin, Cameron CF FLA-3
Rodriguez, Luis O. SS SD -3
Milledge, Lastings CF PIT -3
Marson, Lou C PHI-3
Canizares, Barbaro OF ATL-3
Freese, David 3B STL-3.25
Velez, Eugenio 2B SF-3.25
Silva, Walter RP SD-3.25
Blanks, Kyle 1B SD-3.5
Snell, Ian SP PIT-3.5
Olsen, Scott SP WAS  -4
Perez, Oliver SP NYM  -4
Wellemeyer, Todd SP STL -4.75
Parra, Manny SP MIL  -5.75


I work these ratings out almost daily. They don't seem to help.

[nec13]

I certainly hope JP Ricciardi appreciates this back-and-forth we're having on his behalf. It will save him some valuable decision making time.

JP is a close personal friend of mine and I know that he lurks on this message board. I'm sure that he appreciates our input.

[jbissell]

So anyone who trades for him has to take the chance that he won't wanna sign and they'll lose him to free agency anyway, all for a half-year rental.

I thought he wasn't a free agent until after next season, so they'd be trading him now to maximize his value.

You're correct. Shoulda looked that up earlier.

I don't understand why you'd wanna trade him. He's not making a ton of money and he's basically their only box office draw. And you're never gonna get equal value for him. In all likelihood, you're just gonna get a bunch of guys who may or may not be superstars someday.

Yeah, unless it's something like the package they were asking for from the Dodgers (Billingsley, etc.) I can't imagine they'll get a package close to equaling arguably the best pitcher in the game.

[jbissell]

Fucking American League.

I blame the Cardinals.

[nec13]

Fucking American League.

I blame the Cardinals.

 

Interleague play made the All-Star Game irrelevant. I prefer NL baseball and I'm tired of seeing the AL win year after year, but does it really mean anything?

I think not.

[buffcoat]

Fucking American League.

I blame the Cardinals.

 

Interleague play made the All-Star Game irrelevant. I prefer NL baseball and I'm tired of seeing the AL win year after year, but does it really mean anything?

I think not.

I believe I read that 18 of the last 23 World Series have been won by the team that opened at home.

[scratchbomb]

Fucking American League.

I blame the Cardinals.

 

Interleague play made the All-Star Game irrelevant. I prefer NL baseball and I'm tired of seeing the AL win year after year, but does it really mean anything?

I think not.

I believe I read that 18 of the last 23 World Series have been won by the team that opened at home.

I counted back to 1980, and of the 28 World Series since then, the team that opened at home won 21 times. So I'd say it probably does mean something.

[Trotskie]

According to Alan I. Abramowitz, (some SABR dude) there is a home field advantage.

 

"In his research, he also discovered that home field advantage in the World Series is due almost entirely to the momentum gained by playing the first two games at home.  Teams beginning the World Series at home have won game one 62% of the time.

When a split occurred in the first two games, according to Abramowitz, it made a difference which game the home team won.

In his article, he writes, “Home teams that won game one but lost game two went on to win only 9 out of 20 Series (45%).  In contrast, home teams that lost game one but won game two went on to win 12 out of 17 Series (71%).  In fact, these teams were almost as successful as those that swept the first two games at home.”

He concludes that winning the first two games at home, or even losing game one but winning game two, usually provides the home team with enough momentum to carry it to victory in the Series.”

[jbissell]

Is there a breakdown by winner by league?  Basically I'm wondering if homefield is a slightly bigger deal for the NL because of the lack of DH and it's effect on the AL team's lineup.

[scratchbomb]

Is there a breakdown by winner by league?  Basically I'm wondering if homefield is a slightly bigger deal for the NL because of the lack of DH and it's effect on the AL team's lineup.

In my informal survey, of the 21 teams with homefield advantage who won the World Series, only 8 of them were NL teams, and only one of them within the last 10 years (2001 DBacks, 1997 Marlins, 1995 Braves, 1990 Reds, 1988 Dodgers, 1986 Mets, 1982 Cardinals, 1980 Phillies).

But of the 7 teams that won despite not having homefield advantage, 4 were NL teams--three of those coming in the last decade (2008 Phillies, 2006 Cardinals, 2003 Marlins, 1981 Dodgers).

All of which means...I like to look things up on the interwebs.

[nec13]

I stand corrected. I guess it does mean something. Although, it shouldn't. Homefield advantage should go to the team with the best overall record. It's just common sense.

I think that interleague play has killed the allure of the All-Star Game. And so what if the AL is better than the NL?