Really Iowa?

[Gilly]

Iowa's endorsement of Huckabee is a big blow to my idealistic view that the political landscape is actually changing. Come on Iowa. I'm embarrassed to be your neighbor.

[Fido]

I couldn't agree more, Gilly.  I don't believe this man is presidential material for this country at all.  I'm surprised at the results, but I think in part it speaks to the weaknesses of other candidates in the Republican field. 

I'm a proud native Iowan, now living in NYC, and have spent time in Iowa over the holidays, where I followed the campaign activities of the presidential candidates very enthusiastically.  (I got to meet Obama in Fort Madison, Iowa!!) 

I heard that about 330,000 people attended caucuses tonight in Iowa; there are 2.3 million or so eligible voters out of a state population of almost 3 million.  It's a small segment of the population that will eventually vote in November '08.  What I would point out is that this is the result of 114,000 or so Republican caucus-goers, not necessarily all Iowa Republicans, and the most active Republicans are disproportionately conservative and evangelical.  Iowa is not really that much of a Bible belt state, though it certainly has a considerable strand of the population who fit that description.  However -- the Republican party in Iowa, which used to be fairly moderate a generation or so ago, has become heavily influenced by the Christian right, beginning around the early '90s, when Pat Robertson came in second in the Republican caucus.  That's the backbone of the Iowan Republican party to this day, and it's fortunately not really in step with the rest of the state, nor most of the rest of the country. 

I don't think this fact has really been fully acknowledged by media coverage of the Iowa caucuses.  I'd suggest that this result is fairly skewed, and not just because the demographics of Iowa are what they are, overwhelmingly white and older than the national average.  I'd suggest that it's skewed because of who the most active Republicans in Iowa are in 2008.  I also believe that it leaves the Republican presidential field pretty much open, and I'd look to New Hampshire and the "super-duper-Tuesday" states to see which candidate emerges as the front runner.  If it's Huckabee, I'd say that Republicans are making a huge mistake. 

By the way Gilly, which state are you from?  It's great to hear from fellow Midwestern FOTs -- should we start a Midwest FOT caucus? (pardon the expression)

[Andy]

so we all agree that Rudy should be president, right?

[Fido]

Yeah, because it's still ALL ABOUT 9/11 and NOTHING ELSE!!! 

[Laurie]

Sixty percent* of Americans believe that the everything in the Book of Revelations is going to happen. A good portion of those folks probably live in Iowa or something.

*This statistic was gakked from the issue of Radar that popped into my mailbox last week. Yeah, I subscribe. Yes, it will probably go under again before this year is out. I know.

[Fido]

Sixty percent* of Americans believe that the everything in the Book of Revelations is going to happen. A good portion of those folks probably live in Iowa or something.

*This statistic was gakked from the issue of Radar that popped into my mailbox last week. Yeah, I subscribe. Yes, it will probably go under again before this year is out. I know.

What's equally terrifying is that a majority of Americans believe that the world was created as described in the book of Genesis, and that evolution is "just a theory," meaning that it's only a hypothesis, i.e., God created the world in six days and rested on the seventh.  Lots of folks in Iowa and Florida believe this too.  This would mean, as some wag suggested in the New York Times recently, that the world is only slightly older than Gene Hackman.

Mike Huckabee is not very popular with Wall Street and the Club of Growth (anti-tax) crowd.  I think it will be important to see what happens to candidate Huckabee in the coming weeks.  Will his candidacy provoke an even greater fight for the heart and soul of the Republican party?  Where will the Republican "big money" start to line up?  Or will the rank and file of the party start to really line up behind him?  Remember, there are a good 20 states that are at least as conservative, evangelical and Republican as Iowa and probably more so.  And if the rank and file start to get behind a candidate who is probably even more conservative and evangelical Christian than Bush, what will that mean for the general election?  I think we would start to see an epic battle within the Republican party and probably the demise of the disproportionate influence that the Christian Right has had on the Republican party and the nation as a whole. 

[Beth]

Sixty percent* of Americans believe that the everything in the Book of Revelations is going to happen.

I'll say. There's lots of them out there. A few of them started this website: www.raptureletters.com

After all, when the Rapture comes, your sinning family and friends have the right to know where you are.

[Forrest]

Sixty percent* of Americans believe that the everything in the Book of Revelations is going to happen. A good portion of those folks probably live in Iowa or something.

*This statistic was gakked from the issue of Radar that popped into my mailbox last week. Yeah, I subscribe. Yes, it will probably go under again before this year is out. I know.

What's important to remember is that the majority of these polls are taken from a sample of less than 600 people by firms that are usually looking to have numbers skew in a shocking direction. And some of them make it easy for us to sit back and think that the rest of America is filled with fundamentalist white trash nutcases. I'm not saying that things aren't grim, but these "polls" often serve as nothing more than an excuse to think of yourself as more evolved than the troglodytes in the sticks. Special interests don't just have a hold over government; they have a hold over every aspect of the media, down to the wide-spread societal perceptions they manufacture.

[Josh]

Hey crybabies:

If you don't count the "uncommitted" slates that won the 1972 and 1976 Democratic caucuses, only two presidential candidates (excluding incumbents) have won Iowa and went on to win the presidency.

The most recent example was Texas Governor George W. Bush, who handily defeated publisher Steve Forbes in the 2000 Republican race. Bush went on to win the nomination and was elected that autumn.

And 1976, an unknown former governor of Georgia, Jimmy Carter came out of nowhere to beat Birch Bayh, propelling Carter to the nomination and the presidency.

But that's it. The only other Iowa caucus winners who went on to win the presidency were incumbents seeking re-election (and usually unopposed within their party), such as Ronald Reagan in 1984 and Bill Clinton in 1996.

[Beth]

Sixty percent* of Americans believe that the everything in the Book of Revelations is going to happen. A good portion of those folks probably live in Iowa or something.

*This statistic was gakked from the issue of Radar that popped into my mailbox last week. Yeah, I subscribe. Yes, it will probably go under again before this year is out. I know.

What's important to remember is that the majority of these polls are taken from a sample of less than 600 people by firms that are usually looking to have numbers skew in a shocking direction. And some of them make it easy for us to sit back and think that the rest of America is filled with fundamentalist white trash nutcases. I'm not saying that things aren't grim, but these "polls" often serve as nothing more than an excuse to think of yourself as more evolved than the troglodytes in the sticks. Special interests don't just have a hold over government; they have a hold over every aspect of the media, down to the wide-spread societal perceptions they manufacture.

That reminds me, I love to ask people this question, and it will be interesting to do it on a broader spectrum. Have you ever been polled on anything having to do with a current presidential election? I've asked probably over a hundred people that question in the past year, and haven't found a person who's been polled yet.

[Josh]

I've asked probably over a hundred people that question in the past year, and haven't found a person who's been polled yet.

From what I just read, you did poll them Beth. Unless you don't count yourself in which case maybe you have some self-esteem probs wanna talk about it?

[Jason]

[Tim K in DC]

*... gakked ...

Is that a Miami Freudian slip?

[Beth]

I've asked probably over a hundred people that question in the past year, and haven't found a person who's been polled yet.

From what I just read, you did poll them Beth. Unless you don't count yourself in which case maybe you have some self-esteem probs wanna talk about it?

I guess I mean officially, for the news. I can't say anything intelligent or witty right now, though. I'm hypnotized by the vertical stripes and the red faces.

[Beth]

What family looks like that anyway? They can't be real. I think the dog is the scariest part though. I feel like I'm going to be sucked down to hell through its gaping mouth.