Author Topic: 2009 MLB Thread  (Read 105655 times)

Gilly

  • Space Champion!
  • Posts: 2110
Re: 2009 MLB Thread
« Reply #555 on: August 15, 2009, 01:52:51 PM »
Dan Haren has no shot anymore. He's always been a guy who slides in the second half and I don't see him putting up the numbers to compete with Carpenter or Lincecum. I would say if the numbers end up similar to where they are right now Lincecum gets it. There's no way you can give it to Carpenter who has the same stats at Lincecum minus 100 K's.

I could be wrong, but I disagree.  Admittedly, I know very little about how they select the Cy Young winner, but too much emphasis on strikeouts seems misguided.  Carpenter has pitched to contact a lot more this year than in the past which is partly why the Cardinals lead the majors in double plays this season.  I'll take a double play over a strikeout any day.  Of course, then there's also the issue of in order to turn a double play someone had to have gotten on base in the first place which means a hit or a walk so I'll shut up now.


Carpenter and Lincecum are equal when it comes to putting batters on base and allowing them to score, Haren has allowed more batters to score and is a little better than both of them when it comes to putting batters on base. I don't think K's should be the main factor but when everything else is equal it should put Lincecum over the top. Double plays is not something I would look at... it means you already allowed somebody to get to first.

jbissell

  • Space Champion!
  • Posts: 1807
Re: 2009 MLB Thread
« Reply #556 on: August 15, 2009, 02:04:15 PM »
You also have to differentiate between who should win it and who will win it. Because the baseball writers association is home to some of the laziest minds on earth.

Unless someone's having a monster year, the writers tend to vote awards for guys who have won (or come close to winning) before. And in the case of the Cy Young, they put way too much emphasis on wins. On that basis, I guess Carpenter and Lincecum would be the best bets to win. Not that neither would deserve it, but they'd probably get more votes than other guys who are having similarly good seasons (Matt Cain, Dan Haren) but haven't won it before.

Exactly.  Wins are probably weighted the heaviest by the writers, when they're the thing least out of a pitcher's control.

dave from knoxville

  • Space Champion!
  • Posts: 5108
Re: 2009 MLB Thread
« Reply #557 on: August 15, 2009, 05:21:46 PM »
The typical NL pitcher allows approximately 1.3 baserunners (hits or walks) per inning. Dan Haren has pitched 161 innings; the average pitcher with this number of innings pitched would have allowed 193 runners to reach base; Haren has allowed 143.

There's another way to think of this; let's calculate the number of innings pitched associated with the average pitcher who has allowed 143 baserunners, as Haren has. This is a simple calculation, 143/1.3 = approximately 110 innings pitched. The average pitcher with 110 innings pitched will have allowed 143 baserunners. To get to Haren's level, that pitcher would then have to throw 51 consecutive perfect innings. I refer to this as "innings above average".

By comparison, the next top 9 NL pitchers in this regard are Lincecum, 35; Carpenter, 31; Javier Vasquez, 29; Josh Johnson, 22; Joel Piniero, 19; Ryan Franklin, 14; Matt Cain, 13; Randy Wolf, 13; and Rafael Soriano, 13.

Since this is the stat most fully controlled by pitchers I have always felt it should be the most important ones. ERA is a close second, but it's heavily influenced by bone-headed coaching moves like allowing Gary Sheffield to occasionally play in the field. Dopes. Sports-writing experts are more impressed by wins. Dopes.


dave from knoxville

  • Space Champion!
  • Posts: 5108
Re: 2009 MLB Thread
« Reply #558 on: August 15, 2009, 05:45:54 PM »
I know I probably should just shut up about this stats-based stuff, but I can't let go without one more note.

"Batting Champion" is similarly arbitrary, based as it is on batting average. But what do you think would be more effective in terms of team production, a 400 AB .340 hitter, or a 650 AB .320 hitter? What kind of ridiculous moves have managers made at the season's end to try to secure batting titles for their players, benching players so they don't risk having their average drop when somebody 3 or 4 points back is in hot pursuit? The batting champion should be determined by a player's "Hits above average", not by simple percentage of hits per at bats, which is meaningless statistically. (By the way, a .340 hitter with 400 at bats is 28 hits above average; a .320 hitter with 650 at bats is 32.5 hits above average.)

Here's an example: as of yesterday morning, Todd Helton was 129 for 399, for a batting average of .3233. This is 21 hits above average. Miguel Tejada was 148 for 466, .3176 BA, but 22 hits above average. I favor Tejada, though Helton is considered by most people to be the slightly better hitter (as evidenced by old-timey Sunday morning listings of the top 100 batting averages.)

But the real key to understanding why Tejada's performance is better is this; start with the player with fewer at bats, and determine what he would need to do to attain the other's achievement. Which player is better should be determined by whether the difference in the performances is above or below average. In order for Helton to exactly match Tejada, he would have to go 19 for 67. 19/67 = .284. Since Helton's got to turn in over-average performance to reach Tejada, Tejada's better (with a smaller batting average.) If Helton could reach Tejada with a sub-standard performance, Helton must have started higher.

Similarly, in the pitching discussion, Haren's allowed 143 baserunners in 161 innings, Lincecum's at 176 BR in 172 IP, Carpenter's at 128 BR in 131 IP. For Haren to "reach" Lincecum, he can allow 33 baserunners in 11 innings, a WHIP of 3.000; Haren's WAY ahead of Lincecum. For Carpenter to "reach" Haren, he can only allow 15 BR in 15 IP, a phenomenal WHIP of 1.000, so Haren's ahead of Carpenter; and for Carpenter to "reach" Lincecum, he can only allow 45 BR in 48 IP, less than one baserunner per inning, so Lincecum's ahead of of Carpenter; and so on. The beauty of the single "Innings above average" stat is that for every pair of pitchers you choose, the one with the higher IAA will ALWAYS be better in this regard.

I am similarly tortured by non-sports ranking methods.

dave from knoxville

  • Space Champion!
  • Posts: 5108
Re: 2009 MLB Thread
« Reply #559 on: August 15, 2009, 09:50:22 PM »
Another in a growing collection of "Threads that dfk killed.".

jbissell

  • Space Champion!
  • Posts: 1807
Re: 2009 MLB Thread
« Reply #560 on: August 15, 2009, 10:00:32 PM »
Another in a growing collection of "Threads that dfk killed.".

Do you have AL calculations?

nec13

  • Space Champion!
  • Posts: 2397
Re: 2009 MLB Thread
« Reply #561 on: August 15, 2009, 10:06:42 PM »
Another in a growing collection of "Threads that dfk killed.".

Nonsense, Dave. That's actually some solid quantitative analysis. I had never even heard of "hits above average" or "innings above average" before this.
Nobody ever lends money to a man with a sense of humor.

scratchbomb

  • Achilles Tendon Bursitis
  • Posts: 786
Re: 2009 MLB Thread
« Reply #562 on: August 15, 2009, 10:09:07 PM »
Another in a growing collection of "Threads that dfk killed.".

Nonsense, Dave. That's actually some solid quantitative analysis. I had never even heard of "hits above average" or "innings above average" before this.

I agree. Great stuff, dfk.

In other news, I don't think I'm on the Matt Cain bandwagon anymore...

Him tipping his cap sarcastically to the crowd today, because he was mad they booed him for sending David Wright to the hospital--seriously, some of the douchiest on-field behavior I've ever seen (non-Shane-Victorino division).
scratchbomb.com: a potentially explosive collection of verbal irritants

nec13

  • Space Champion!
  • Posts: 2397
Re: 2009 MLB Thread
« Reply #563 on: August 15, 2009, 10:14:41 PM »
Cain did that? I've been in the car for the past few hours and I had heard that David Wright had sustained a concussion. However, I didn't know the circumstances. That's certainly worse than anything that Shane Victorino has ever done.

What a tool.
Nobody ever lends money to a man with a sense of humor.

scratchbomb

  • Achilles Tendon Bursitis
  • Posts: 786
Re: 2009 MLB Thread
« Reply #564 on: August 15, 2009, 10:18:52 PM »
Cain did that? I've been in the car for the past few hours and I had heard that David Wright had sustained a concussion. However, I didn't know the circumstances. That's certainly worse than anything than Shane Victorino has ever done.

What a tool.

He beaned Wright, sent him to the hospital. He's got a concussion and is staying overnight for observation.

It's not the beaning that earns him douche status; it did not appear intentional. But he got booed for the rest of the game, cuz, duh. Rather than just take it like a man, when he was yanked in the 8th inning, he sarcastically tipped his cap to the crowd, as if to say (a la Scott Stapp to David Cross) "thanks for the words". Total dick move. Like we're all supposed to feel sorry for him.
scratchbomb.com: a potentially explosive collection of verbal irritants

dave from knoxville

  • Space Champion!
  • Posts: 5108
Re: 2009 MLB Thread
« Reply #565 on: August 15, 2009, 11:07:15 PM »
Another in a growing collection of "Threads that dfk killed.".

Do you have AL calculations?

I don't have easy quick access to AL stats. If you know of a site hosting such that can download into Excel, I could report back in 2-3 minutes. My fantasy league is NL, so that's all I can access.

dave from knoxville

  • Space Champion!
  • Posts: 5108
Re: 2009 MLB Thread
« Reply #566 on: August 15, 2009, 11:28:58 PM »
Another in a growing collection of "Threads that dfk killed.".

Do you have AL calculations?

I don't have easy quick access to AL stats. If you know of a site hosting such that can download into Excel, I could report back in 2-3 minutes. My fantasy league is NL, so that's all I can access.

Scratch that; your wish, my command.

Here's the top 20

1 R. Halladay TOR 40.2
2 J. Washburn DET 34.2
3 J. Beckett BOS 33.4
4 C. Sabathia NYY 31.7
5 Z. Greinke KC 31.1
6 J. Verlander DET 29.3
7 M. Buehrle CHW 27.4
8 S. Baker MIN 26.5
9 E. Jackson DET 26.2
10 F. Hernandez SEA 24.4
11 M. Guerrier MIN 23.4
12 A. Bailey OAK 21
13 J. Nathan MIN 18.3
14 J. Weaver ANA 18
15 M. Garza TB 17.7
16 G. Floyd CHW 17.4
17 M. Rivera NYY 17.3
18 A. Aceves NYY 16.6
19 J. Lester BOS 14.5
20 D. O'Day TEX 14.4

Just for fun, here's the worst 10

282 S. Kazmir TB -16.2
283 R. Ortiz NYY -16.4
284 R. Perez CLE -16.8
285 I. Snell SEA -17.5
286 V. Mazzaro OAK -17.7
287 C. Wang NYY -18.4
288 F. Carmona CLE -18.7
289 R. Hill BAL -19.5
290 D. Matsuzaka BOS -19.7
291 D. Eveland OAK -19.9

dave from knoxville

  • Space Champion!
  • Posts: 5108
Re: 2009 MLB Thread
« Reply #567 on: August 15, 2009, 11:43:53 PM »
Dear Lord, don't get him started.

In the interest of accuracy, I re-ran NL hitting numbers; batting average this season is very close to .260, which includes pitchers. Given that, here's the current 20 best hitters (and 1- worst) in the category "hits above average" which is calculated prior to the start of today's games as (hits - at bats*.260504)

Best 20

1 H. Ramirez FLA SS 39.1
2 P. Sandoval SF 3B 28.2
3 D. Wright NYM 3B 27.3
4 A. Pujols STL 1B 26.8
5 M. Holliday STL LF 26.3
6 M. Tejada HOU SS 25.8
7 T. Helton COL 1B 24.8
8 R. Braun MIL LF 24.1
9 C. Lee HOU LF 23.2
10 M. Kemp LA CF 22.5
11 S. Victorino PHI CF 22.3
12 C. Guzman WAS SS 21.2
13 N. Morgan WAS CF 20.7
14 F. Lopez MIL 2B 19.4
15 P. Fielder MIL 1B 19.4
16 R. Zimmerman WAS 3B 18.6
17 R. Theriot CHC SS 18.3
18 S. Rolen CIN 3B 18.3
19 C. Beltran NYM CF 18.2
20 J. Pierre LA LF 16.9

Worst 10

492 D. Hernandez ATL SS -10.1
493 M. Fontenot CHC 2B -10.3
494 E. Bruntlett PHI 3B -11.1
495 A. Kearns WAS RF -11.3
496 J. Hardy MIL SS -11.6
497 B. Hall MIL 3B -12.7
498 B. Giles SD RF -15.6
499 R. Cedeno PIT SS -15.7
500 J. Bruce CIN RF -15.9
501 C. Young ARI CF -21.1

hugman

  • Guest
Re: 2009 MLB Thread
« Reply #568 on: August 16, 2009, 12:15:11 AM »
DFK, I like to think that a part of what you call arbitrary is actually from having watched people on the field in the act of playing baseball rather than strictly looking at a grid of numbers.

Of course, I hate math, so there's that.

Gilly

  • Space Champion!
  • Posts: 2110
Re: 2009 MLB Thread
« Reply #569 on: August 16, 2009, 01:12:28 AM »
The typical NL pitcher allows approximately 1.3 baserunners (hits or walks) per inning. Dan Haren has pitched 161 innings; the average pitcher with this number of innings pitched would have allowed 193 runners to reach base; Haren has allowed 143.

There's another way to think of this; let's calculate the number of innings pitched associated with the average pitcher who has allowed 143 baserunners, as Haren has. This is a simple calculation, 143/1.3 = approximately 110 innings pitched. The average pitcher with 110 innings pitched will have allowed 143 baserunners. To get to Haren's level, that pitcher would then have to throw 51 consecutive perfect innings. I refer to this as "innings above average".

By comparison, the next top 9 NL pitchers in this regard are Lincecum, 35; Carpenter, 31; Javier Vasquez, 29; Josh Johnson, 22; Joel Piniero, 19; Ryan Franklin, 14; Matt Cain, 13; Randy Wolf, 13; and Rafael Soriano, 13.

Since this is the stat most fully controlled by pitchers I have always felt it should be the most important ones. ERA is a close second, but it's heavily influenced by bone-headed coaching moves like allowing Gary Sheffield to occasionally play in the field. Dopes. Sports-writing experts are more impressed by wins. Dopes.



Just wondering, what's wrong with just using WHIP?